Category: International Economics

Gold’s Bull Run: Can the Momentum Last?

Posted on by scott.hodges

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, driven in part by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election. Since the beginning of 2024, gold has risen by approximately 32%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 23% growth and the Nasdaq’s 28% increase. Analysts link this rally to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates typically boost the appeal of gold. Central banks have also been purchasing significant amounts of gold to diversify portfolios and hedge against global instability.

China has played a key role in this trend, increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months until May to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar. Although central bank acquisitions have slowed recently, gold prices continue to climb, fueled by investor expectations of more rate cuts. The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates for the first time in over four years, with market sentiment pointing to the likelihood of further reductions.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the upcoming U.S. presidential election has intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Concerns about the election’s outcome have added to market volatility, prompting investors to turn to gold as a stable refuge. Despite warnings about potential price swings, gold remains attractive in the current environment, given its historical role as a hedge against economic turbulence.

However, some analysts caution that the rally may lose momentum if the Federal Reserve reverses course to combat inflation by raising interest rates. A stronger U.S. dollar, resulting from higher rates, could make gold less appealing since it does not generate interest. Additionally, if geopolitical tensions ease or global economic conditions stabilize, the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment could diminish.

Another potential risk lies in the relationship between gold prices and real yields. If real yields increase, gold could face downward pressure. A slowdown in central bank gold purchases may also contribute to a price decline. While the outlook for gold remains positive in the near term, shifting economic and geopolitical conditions present risks that could lead to a correction after the current rally peaks.

Female-secured Patents Could Boost Economy by $1 trillion

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Small businesses and startup entrepreneurs are known to rely on funding from government agencies like the Small Business Administration; minority-owned businesses might turn to the Minority Business Development Agency. Kathi Vidal is pushing to have entrepreneurs consider applying for patents from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office alongside their application(s) for funding.

Vidal, who is currently serving as USPTO director, is an experienced intellectual property lawyer. A primary platform of her work in the USPTO, since her appointment by President Biden in April 2022, has been the diversification of those applying for and receiving patents. To date, only 13% of U.S. patents have been issued to women. When offered free legal guidance for the patent-application process, women-led filings increased by 41%. Vidal believes that the inclusion of women in the patenting system at equal rates as men could boost the U.S. economy by as much as $1 trillion.

According to Vidal, legal support is not the only barrier to female inclusion. The patenting system is inherently confusing and excluding. While the government views rejections as an opportunity for re-application, most applicants don’t understand. Vidal is introducing a cover letter to patent decisions, assigning an examiner who will be available for consultations and be the human face of an otherwise amorphous and overwhelming process.

Patents are a tangible way of supporting the economy and expanding business competition, particularly in growing fields like artificial intelligence and technologies. Similarly, Vidal explains that patents facilitate partnership and cooperation. Without patents, companies are resistant to sharing their ideas.

America’s Economic Policy Makers Should ‘Use’ the Corona Crisis to their Advantage

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The coronavirus pandemic has been tough on everything and the economy has been no exception. Economist and public policy analyst Joseph Stiglitz said that “we shouldn’t let a crisis go to waste.” Stiglitz – who once held the position of World Bank Chief Economist and Senior VP – said that the pandemic has shown us how the economic system is not working.  He spoke in particular about the market economy’s lack of resilience, the climate crisis and inequality.

While that seems like deep cause for concern, Stiglitz explained that given that these issues are related, they can be tackled simultaneously, suggesting that if America invests in green infrastructure, jobs will be created which will reduce inequality. If taxes are increased slightly those extra funds could be put toward what is necessary for “the common good.”

Indeed, Siglitz is not alone in these sentiments. A paper written by Nicolas Verbeek in Inquiries Journal argued that it truly can be viewed as “a unique opportunity for the existing global economic institutions – G20, WTO, IMF and World Bank – to make the necessary improvements that are needed to effectively address the global challenges of our time.”

New US-China 1st Phase Deal

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America and China have just announced Phase 1 of a new economic-trade deal that seeks to “put a floor under further deterioration of the bilateral relationship.”  According to Craig Allen, US-China Business Council President, this move is “very encouraging.” US Chamber of Commerce’s EVP and Head of International Affairs Myron Brilliant said that it “creates clarity for businesses and provides a lift for American consumers during the holiday season.”

And as Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation pointed out, once the trade door is “re-opened” between the two countries, this will be “key to helping farmers and ranchers get back on their feet.”

Trade is so very important for these farmers.  One farmer, Tom Waters explained that:

“Getting these trade deals negotiated and in place can do nothing but help us, (and) help our price and our ability to feed the world, really.”

Farmers really do need to return to their engagement in global business, of which US-China trade is a huge part. Added to this fact is that since 2018’s reshaping of trade policy via the Trump administration, American farmers have been faced with “fluctuating prices and uncertain destinations for what they grow and harvest amid increasing tariffs on grain exports.”  The farmers really want trade (not aid) but they are facing demands from bankers who want to be paid.

Hopefully though the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement will also provide help to farmers moving forward.

The US’s Global Power: Today and Tomorrow

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Global power

We know that America is a superpower but in practical terms, what is its real contribution to the world economy? Given that the United States actually purchases over $500bn morethan it exports, the net contributionAmerica is making worldwide gives it a very impressive status within the international economy.  This also leads to an enhancement of Washington’s role as a world superpower.

This gives America heightened bargaining status vis-à-vis the coordination of global economic policy. And that is the most important assignment undertaken by G-20 summits – the address for the international economic forum. This year, come June – when America’s representatives head out to Japan for the meeting – America’s position will be stronger, especially vis-à-vis its capacity to reduce its trade deficits.

Furthermore, as soon as President Donald Trump pushed back the March 2nddeadline in the US-China trade dispute. There has been progressfrom both China and US in reaching a solution but as Oxford Economics Chief US Economist Gregory Daco cautioned:

“Popping the champagne today would be premature.  [The far-reaching disparity between the two nations] will prevent a significant de-escalation of trade tensions between the two giants.”

Indeed, if the end of year figures are anything to go by, the champagne bottle shouldn’t even be purchased yet. According to figures from last year, the fight to find a solution between the two nations “disrupt[ed] the global trading system and the cross-border production lines that businesses have built over recent decades.”  Plus, a recent National Association for Business Economics surveyfound that 75 percent of economists believe America’s economy will slump into a recession by 2021, the China-US trade war being cited as the main reason why.

America vis-à-vis its Chinese Trade War

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America is back in business.  At least according to a recent World Economic Forum Index  ranking the nation as the world’s “most competitive country,” a position it has not had for the last decade, concluding that “economic recovery is well underway, with the global economy projected to grow almost 4% in 2018 and 2019.”

While this is extremely positive, the forum also found that there is room for improvement on social issues.    Caution was called for since “recovery remains vulnerable to a range of risks and potential shocks,” such as the simmering trade war between America and China.  According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal:

“The U.S. has levied tariffs on a total of $250 billion of Chinese goods and China has retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. exports as the two nations spar over trade imbalances and other issues.”

When looking at China vis-à-vis America, with the trade war, there has been an expansion of its economic deceleration with the deterioration of the trade war.  There has been a distinct loss of momentum in China’s economy in 2018, linked to the efforts made by its government to curb the high debt levels.

Clearly both America and china are losing out with the current trade war. Here, we find 11 experts offering possible exits to the war.