Tag: Federal Reserve

Gold’s Bull Run: Can the Momentum Last?

Posted on by scott.hodges

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, driven in part by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election. Since the beginning of 2024, gold has risen by approximately 32%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 23% growth and the Nasdaq’s 28% increase. Analysts link this rally to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates typically boost the appeal of gold. Central banks have also been purchasing significant amounts of gold to diversify portfolios and hedge against global instability.

China has played a key role in this trend, increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months until May to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar. Although central bank acquisitions have slowed recently, gold prices continue to climb, fueled by investor expectations of more rate cuts. The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates for the first time in over four years, with market sentiment pointing to the likelihood of further reductions.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the upcoming U.S. presidential election has intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Concerns about the election’s outcome have added to market volatility, prompting investors to turn to gold as a stable refuge. Despite warnings about potential price swings, gold remains attractive in the current environment, given its historical role as a hedge against economic turbulence.

However, some analysts caution that the rally may lose momentum if the Federal Reserve reverses course to combat inflation by raising interest rates. A stronger U.S. dollar, resulting from higher rates, could make gold less appealing since it does not generate interest. Additionally, if geopolitical tensions ease or global economic conditions stabilize, the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment could diminish.

Another potential risk lies in the relationship between gold prices and real yields. If real yields increase, gold could face downward pressure. A slowdown in central bank gold purchases may also contribute to a price decline. While the outlook for gold remains positive in the near term, shifting economic and geopolitical conditions present risks that could lead to a correction after the current rally peaks.

Three Positive Takeaways from September’s Employment Report

Posted on by scott.hodges

Recent economic data highlights a surprisingly strong trend in job growth, bringing optimism to the business landscape. In September, the U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, with employers adding 254,000 jobs—well above economists’ expectations of 150,000. This robust growth coincided with a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, indicating a tightening labor market.

This surge in job creation has reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy’s strength, countering concerns of a potential slowdown and underscoring the continued vitality of the labor market across various sectors.

A key highlight of this report is the broad-based nature of job growth. Restaurants, retailers, and construction companies all contributed to the employment gains, signaling a widespread recovery. Additionally, revisions to July and August figures added another 72,000 jobs to previous estimates, further emphasizing the job market’s strength. Although job growth has slowed since the first quarter, it remains solid, with an average of 186,000 jobs added monthly over the past three months.

Another encouraging development is the ongoing expansion of the U.S. labor force, which grew by 150,000 individuals in September. This increase is largely driven by immigration, with the foreign-born workforce rising by 1.4 million over the past year. The influx of new workers has been essential in sustaining job growth, particularly as the native-born workforce shrinks due to the retirement of baby boomers. Furthermore, workers are seeing real gains in purchasing power, with average wages increasing 4% year-over-year, outpacing inflation and extending a 15-month trend of wage growth exceeding price hikes.

These positive employment figures have broader economic implications. The 4% rise in average hourly earnings may bolster consumer spending, while the strong labor market could influence the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Overall, the September jobs report strengthens confidence in the U.S. economy’s resilience, easing recession fears and supporting the possibility of continued growth and stability in the months ahead.

America’s Job Market

Posted on by scott.hodges

There has not been so much good news for America’s labor  market recently. Interestingly, while there seemed to be an increase in wages and hours spent in the office, unfortunately this did not quite mirror productivity and output. In fact, at the end of the third quarter, figures showed that productivity dropped (SAAR) by 5.2%, making it the largest drop since Q21960 (which recorded a drop of 6.1%).

Despite these pessimistic and potentially troubling numbers, according to Action Economics’ Chief Economist Mike Englund, we should be seeing a “solid gain” for 2021 end of year of 1.7 percent.

According to recent Federal Reserve data however, a drop in US consumer credit from $27.8bn September to $16.9bn in October was recorded.  This was somewhat of a blow to economists who were anticipating a gain of $25bn.

The Face of Corporate America

Posted on by scott.hodges

Corporate America is in a great shape, at least when it comes to acquisitions, investments, and the face of its overall economy.  According to recent Federal Reserve Q2 data, non-financial companies’ liquid assets (currency, foreign deposits, money-market and mutual fund shares) reached a record of close to $2.3 trillion, marking a jump of nearly 60 percent since the middle of 2009 when the recession ended.

How does business today in the US impact this?  It is definitely evolving, today featuring many more types of businesses and companies (as well as startups). These comprise different types of executive leaderships and mission statements, as well as public organizations (interested in CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility) and community development.

We have also encountered a shift in the geopolitical business scene and all indicators point to our need to encourage democracy and diplomacy globally. This is not just for our economy though; it is also so that we don’t slip through the cracks of public policy. Things are good for the man on the street as well, with wages finally increasing and employers adding more than 2 million jobs a year.

It is absolutely not a bad time for America economically and developmentally.  Right now it is just a case of how much we’re prepared to put into our global advancement to ensure we have a presence around the world.  Because if that slips, it will negatively impact all the work we’ve done at home over the last few years.