2019 and Global Economic Impact

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US economy 2019

Where is the US economy headed?  What impact will the global economic sphere have on this powerhouse region in 2019?  In this article we take a look at what some of the experts believe will happen – economically and geographically speaking – this year.

According to Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (a company “dedicated to defining the business of politics”), the greatest geopolitical danger we will face this year will be:

“the crises we ignore… setting ourselves up for trouble down the road. Big trouble. The geopolitical environment is the most dangerous it’s been in decades … and at a moment when the global economy is faring well.”

Together with Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of Eurasia Group, Bremmer believes that the problem is how global decision-makers are ignoring potential future risks with their over-focus on everyday crises that naturally emerge from a leaderless world. This results in “serious consequences for our collective midterm future.”  Examples of this include: the state of the EU, NATO, G20, G7, WTO, the Kremlin and Russia; US-China relations and more.  Given that all these currents are extremely negative, this is extremely problematic.

But which country is causing the biggest negative impact?  According to Matt O’Brien, a Washington Post contributor and business journalist, “China is more of a concern for the global economy than America.  It encountered a huge benchmark stock index descent, ranking it the world’s worst in 2018.  Some of this can be attributed to Trump’s embryonic trade war could significantly intensify but that’s only somewhat.  The real issue was activity in Beijing.  According to IMF reports, China’s credit stimulus has resulted in diminishing returns with a lot more new debt being used to pay back old debt or channeled into improbable growth-driven projects.

Still, Schroders Group Chief Economist Keith Wade anticipates a mid-year 3% US interest rate peak while some banks in other countries will continue the monetary policy squeeze.  What will likely be beneficial to emerging market assets however, is the likelihood of the slumping US dollar.

It’s also likely that Eurozone growth will become sluggish due to the US-China trade war as well as a drop in GDP growth by .3%.  it’s hard to predict the movement of emerging markets due to lower demands from the technology industry toward Asian business although that could be to the benefit of Latin America.

US Economy: Heading into 2019

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Lowering of gas prices in 2019

How are things going to look for the average Joe in the street in 2019 in America?  Well, we can’t predict what is going to happen but herewith a few positive tidbits for money-savers.

Since close to 90% of Americans own cars (second  highest number in the world) the fact that gas prices are going to decline this year is huge. This will be the first time gas has gone down for Americans since 2016.  As GasBuddy Petroleum Analysis Head Patrick DeHaan said:

“2019 sets the stage for the first decline in the yearly national average since 2015, but before motorists drive for joy, it may be prudent to remind them that 2019 will still be the second most expensive year to fill up since then.”

The job market also continues to thrive.  According to Moody Analytics’ Chief Economist Mark Zandi, unemployment figures are very low and are set to continue to drop in 2019.  Indeed, the figures for December 2018 were just 3.7% unemployment (nationally), lowest they have been in nearly five decades.  As well, there is a staggering amount of new job openings in almost all sectors.  As such, it is anticipated that salaries will increase from around 3 to 3.5 percent by 2020.  This gives employees the “upper hand” with their bosses. 

US Economy 2018-2019: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

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Nasdaq

When reviewing America’s economic 2018 report, it is important to focus on the year in its entirety rather than look at what happened in the last month of the year. According to a recent interview held with NPR’s Scott Simon, it’s important to know this:

“The numbers for 2018 are good. The gross domestic product is growing. The U.S. economy is humming. But the numbers for December are bad. The Nasdaq, the Dow and the S&P all ended down yesterday.”

The US economy remains on its decade-long growth spurt.  It’s just that this month has seen some issues like: the partial government shutdown; continual drop in the stock market; increasing disarray in Trump’s administration; America’s trade war with China and more.  Oxford Economics Chief US Economist Gregory Daco however sees that the main attributes required for growth have not been impacted and thus we will continue to encounter expansion.  However, the stock market plunge could actually cause a domino effect with other issues.

So just because the economy took a bit of a nosedive in the third quarter should not put anyone into a panic. Growth remains on track to reach Trump’s 3 percent target for 2018 with a GDP increase at a 3.4% annualized rate (only a slight drop from the 3.5% October estimation). Still in the second quarter growth reached 4.2 percent.

Trump is blaming all of this on Jerome Powell and the hike in key short-term rate by the Federal Reserve tweeting that its officials “don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch — he can’t putt!”

The Changing Face of the US Economy

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Fading Era of Industrialization

The US economy has undergone substantial change – vis-à-vis industries and approach – over the last five decades.  For example, the industrial economy has undergone a huge abatement with the mechanization of a lot of the older industries.  Consequently a lot of the industries have moved their businesses out of the country seeking lower costs.

The numbers speak for themselves. For example, in 1979 there were 19.4 million manufacturing jobs in America.  Today, there are only 12.7 million.

So what has replaced this?  According to Peter Temin, Professor Emeritus of Economics at MIT, a knowledge-based economy that he has dubbed “FTE”: Finance, Technology and Electronics.    He believes that this is concentrated in specific areas like Chicago, Los Angeles and Seattle (Microsoft).

This is also known as the sharing economy – an economic principle continuously in flux.  Referred to as “one of the fastest growing business trends in history,” it has encountered over $23 billion in VC funding investments since 2010. It uses technology to simplify the process in which goods/services are exchanged between two or more entities.  The original idea is that there are enough entities/individuals who share values who can benefit from a skill/asset that is not being utilized to full capacity which occurs through a shared marketplace/peer-to-peer application.

The concept of the sharing economy is not a new one (rural communities lived that way for thousands of years;bartering; the kibbutz concept; communal living etc.).  But with the Internet it becomes a lot easier and more accessible to the masses.

Yes the US economy is changing.  But a lot of that change is just  making life a lot easier and a lot less labor intensive for the average person.

Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare and America’s Private Sector

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In this video, presented by Samantha Ravich, Deputy National Security Adviser to Dick Cheney as well as Chair of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Transformative Cyber Innovation Lab and Vice Chair of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, a discussion is held on cyber-enabled economic warfare. 

US Trade Deficit: Impacts

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The US has been a huge trade deficit for almost half a century.  Last year the figure was $552.3 billion and America’s deficit just with China amounted to $335.7 billion.  The question is, what impact does this have for America’s economy?  Experts have different ideas as to where this ultimately leads and what it means vis-à-vis its imports and exports.

For the most part, the commonly held view among economists is that such a trade deficit has little or no impact on unemployment figures or makes any dent on the economy in a negative day-to-day way.

Especially when looking at the money made from consumer imports like apparel, mobile technology, appliances etc.  Yet the question arises as to how it will impact the economy as travel and media are more utilized given that there was a $255.2billion surplus in that in 2017 as well.

Another argument could be made that America’s increasing trade deficit is actually more due to America fiscal policy and currency swings than trade policy.

According to Oxford Economics economists, there is little expectation that the trend will alter all that  much with the recent agreement between Xi Jinping’s recent agreement to increase its US export purchasing.  They pointed out:

“Although China has agreed to import more farm, energy and industrial goods, and restart importing soybeans ‘immediately,’ we look for export growth momentum to continue to wane,” they wrote, pointing partly to a slowing global economy.”

Plus the fact that it is getting even more expensive (increase from 64 percent of GDP in 2007 to 105.5 percent in 2018) to rescue America from its deficit.

So there is a long way to go until America is even on the road to recovery.  It seems that with its greatest deficit in a decade, the fact that oil exports are on the rise will do little to temper the  moods of the country’s economic advisers.

US Economy: Lengthening and Strengthening

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America’s economy is strengthening.  And this is being matched by its length expansion as well. Indeed in May of this year, “the U.S. economic expansion has become the nation’s second-longest on record.”  A lot of the country’s power is size-related – being one of the world’s largest countries vis-à-vis population.

Since the country is so large, its task of keeping its economy on track – even growing – becomes more challenging.    But it seems to be responding to this situation extremely well.  Just looking at figures for last month we see a creation of 250,00 jobs nationwide.  Growth rates in the 2nd and 3rd quarters this year were 4.2 and 3.5 percent respectively.

Experts are even saying now that if there is still no recession by the end of June, this uptrend will exceed 120 months, outpacing the last huge expansion that occurred in 1991 for two years and breaking the record since 1857!

And then of course this has a cumulative effect worldwide.  Workers outside of America that are manufacturing products sold in America benefit since global growth in general is extremely dependent on US economic cohesion.

According to Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome H. Powell, a lot of this good news is because of the successful work of the Fed.  He said:

“I’m very happy about the state of the economy now. There’s pretty good reason to think we’re going to continue in a positive vein like that. Our policy is part of the reason the economy is in such a good place now. I want to leave on a note of optimism about our economy. We’ve been through a difficult time and we’ve faced difficult times before. We’re in a good place now. I do believe our economy can grow and grow faster.”

US State Expenditure Hike

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According to the annual state expenditure report of the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), there was an increase in US state spending – a first for the 2018 fiscal year.  Industries most impacted were health and transport (6.5% possibly due to an increasing focus on infrastructure throughout the nation) but in every category there was growth.   There was a 6.2 percent hike in general fund revenue during the same time frame.

Executive director of NASBO, John Hicks explained:

“The fiscal 2018 data presents a slightly improved fiscal situation than the prior two years. We’re seeing a slight increase in the growth of spending both from total spending and states’ own funds.”

In addition, there was a more substantial increase in federal fund state spending as compared to state generated revenue spending.   And activity within the manufacturing industry did not meet expectations, dropping to its nadir since April 2017.  According to Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

Demand remains moderately strong, with the New Orders Index easing to below 60 percent for the first time since April 2017, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low but improving, and the Backlog of Orders Index remaining steady. Consumption softened, with production and employment continuing to expand, but at lower levels compared to September.”

US Economy: “Humming Along Just Fine”

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Numbers for the end of October show that there was a 3.1% increase in wages and salaries (according to the Employment Cost Index – ECI) and 227,000 jobs created (far exceeding the actual expectation). US economy clocked one of its best six month stretches in the past decade with growth up 4.2% in the second quarter and 3.5% in the third quarter.

Watch this for more:

Additional US Job Creation

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October was a great month for job creation throughout America.  According to an Economic News Release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,  250,000 jobs were added last month.  Unemployment remains at a almost-5 decade low at 3.7% with Hispanic unemployment getting to its lowest ever – 4.4%.  There has been a hike in salaries too.

All this, in spite of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael.