Labor Market Holds Firm Through May

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The May jobs report landed well above expectations, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 172,000 against a Wall Street consensus closer to 80,000 to 85,000. Revisions to March and April added another 93,000 positions to the prior count, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent, where it has remained within a narrow range since last summer. After a sluggish 2025 defined by tariff uncertainty, higher rates, and a hiring slowdown concentrated almost entirely in healthcare, the breadth of gains in recent months has started to shift that picture.

Leisure and hospitality added 70,000 jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior twelve months, with food services and drinking places accounting for 48,000 of that total. Whether that acceleration reflects a durable trend or a temporary concentration of event-driven hiring remains an open question. Excluding leisure and hospitality, the labor market added just over 100,000 jobs, which is strong in the context of a low breakeven employment rate. Healthcare contributed 35,000 positions, consistent with its recent average, and local government added 55,000.

Financial activities employment fell by 22,000 in May and is now down 107,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. Insurance and information sectors also declined, and roughly 28 percent of unemployed workers are now considered long-term unemployed, up from 25 percent in April, a detail the headline number does nothing to capture.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.4 percent year over year to $37.53, but with inflation still running faster, wage gains are not fully keeping up with prices. The upside surprise in the jobs report makes a June 16–17 rate cut unlikely, though the June 10 CPI release and any Fed guidance before the meeting will still shape the final decision.

Daryl Katz’s OEG Brings 2028 World Cup of Hockey to Alberta

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Under the leadership of Daryl Katz, entrepreneur, philanthropist, Founder and Chairman of OEG Inc., and owner of the National Hockey League’s Edmonton Oilers, Alberta’s selection as the North American host of the 2028 World Cup of Hockey marks a significant achievement for OEG Sports & Entertainment, the sports and entertainment arm of Daryl Katz’s OEG Inc., its partners—and a major economic boost for the province. OEG Sports & Entertainment is committed to making Edmonton a preferred destination for elite international sporting events through more than a decade of infrastructure investment.

The 2028 World Cup of Hockey will bring together the world’s top eight national teams competing across North American and European venues, with Prague, Czechia, serving as the European host city. The tournament will showcase games at two venues in Alberta: Rogers Place in Edmonton, and Scotia Place in Calgary. Calgary and Prague will each host seven games, and Edmonton will host two semifinal games and the championship game. Daryl Katz’s OEG Sports & Entertainment drove the successful bid alongside Calgary Sports & Entertainment Corporation, with support from government and tourism partners across the province. The selection of Alberta reflects Edmonton’s growing influence in international sports hosting, championed by Daryl Katz, and the depth of the infrastructure his organization has built.

Rogers Place has built a strong record hosting major hockey events. It served as the NHL’s Hub City for the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs and hosted the 2021 World Junior Championships, demonstrating the venue’s capacity to handle the logistical and broadcast demands of elite international competition. Both events bear out Katz’s long-term argument that sustained private investment in the arena and surrounding infrastructure pays dividends for the city as a whole.

Alberta’s selection for the 2028 tournament is inseparable from the infrastructure Daryl Katz and OEG Real Estate (formerly Katz Group Real Estate) have built in Edmonton’s downtown core. Since Rogers Place opened in 2016, the $2.5 billion ICE District has become a model for sports-anchored urban developments across North America, with the 25-acre mixed-use district generating $3.2 billion in economic impact through Phase I alone, and spurring an additional $4 billion in surrounding development. ICE District was always designed to function beyond game nights, with residential, office, hotel, and retail components woven together to revitalize the downtown core. For Alberta, the 2028 tournament offers an opportunity to put that infrastructure on the global stage.

Daryl Katz has long described OEG Sports & Entertainment as a “city builder,” and the 2028 tournament is a concrete expression of what that means. Katz has made Edmonton and Alberta a credible candidate to host hockey’s premier international event. The tournament reinforces his position as one of the more consequential figures in professional sports and urban development in Canada over the past decade.

Labor Market Strength Extends Fed Patience

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The April jobs report gives the Federal Reserve a labor market that is sturdy enough to delay rate cuts, while leaving companies to manage financing costs that remain higher for longer. Employers added 115,000 jobs in April, above expectations, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, giving policymakers less urgency to provide support through lower borrowing costs.

The composition of hiring matters for businesses trying to read demand. Job gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade, while federal government employment continued to decline. That mix points to steady demand in essential services, logistics, and consumer-facing operations, even as public-sector payroll cuts continue to weigh on the broader employment picture. The report also showed a rise in part-time workers, which complicates the headline strength by suggesting that some households may be relying on less stable hours or accepting partial employment.

For the Fed, the employment data reduces the immediate risk of overtightening, while inflation remains the harder constraint. A job market that keeps expanding at a moderate pace allows the central bank to keep policy focused on price pressure, especially with energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty adding to inflation concerns. Investors read the report as evidence that the economy can keep growing without forcing a near-term pivot, though stable hiring also weakens the case for relief on interest rates.

Companies planning leases, hiring, capital projects, or debt refinancing now face an economy that is neither weak enough to force monetary easing nor soft enough to make labor planning straightforward. The firms best positioned for the next several months will be those that can protect margins while funding operations under an interest-rate environment that may stay restrictive longer than customers, borrowers, and investors had hoped.

Nintendo Sequel Lifts Global Box Office

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“The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” has opened as the biggest hit of 2026 so far, collecting about $372.5 million worldwide in its first weekend. The animated sequel from Illumination and Nintendo easily topped the box‑office chart, drawing large crowds in North America and more than 80 overseas markets. It outpaced the prior front‑runner, Ryan Gosling’s “Project Hail Mary,” and helped give the film industry one of its busiest early‑spring weekends.

In the U.S. and Canada, the movie earned roughly $130.9 million over three days, with close to $190.1 million if the midweek screenings around spring break are included. That five‑day figure is lower than the original “Super Mario Bros.” film’s $146.4 million first weekend in 2023, but the property still proved strong enough to anchor a major holiday weekend. The film played on more than 4,200 screens domestically, including several hundred premium large‑format and IMAX showings that contributed around $15 million of the total.

Internationally, the rollout added about $182.4 million, with Mexico leading the pack at just under $30 million. The U.K. and Ireland followed with about $19.7 million, while other European, Asian and Latin American markets also contributed solid numbers. The global debut makes it the second‑biggest opening in the Nintendo‑based franchise, behind the $1.4 billion gross of the original Mario film.

The budget is estimated at around $110 million before marketing, which means the movie is already well above its production cost in its first week. That performance has given cinema chains like AMC an immediate boost in ticket and concession sales, with executives pointing to the film as a reliable draw for family audiences. Even though critical reactions have been mixed, exit polls show families giving it high marks, suggesting it could hold well into the summer months.

For the box office at large, the opening is another signal that 2026 is shaping up to be one of the stronger years since the pandemic, as studios and chains continue to bet on big franchises to keep seats filled.

Supply Chains Drive Warehouse Space Demand

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Demand for large warehouses is picking up again after a slower stretch, as companies rethink how they move and store goods. Over the past year, more firms signed leases for very large spaces, a sign that storage and distribution are once again a priority rather than an afterthought.

Several forces are driving this. Ongoing trade uncertainty has pushed companies to keep more inventory closer to their customers instead of relying on long global supply lines. At the same time, some production is shifting closer to home, which adds pressure on domestic distribution networks. Businesses are adjusting by securing space that gives them more control over timing and delivery.

Ecommerce continues to shape the market. Fast shipping has become an expectation, not a perk, and that requires both scale and location. Large warehouses help companies manage volume, while sites closer to cities help them meet tight delivery windows. Many are also turning to flexible storage options so they can handle seasonal spikes without locking into more space than they need year-round. Technology is making this easier to manage, with better systems to track inventory and keep operations running smoothly.

Supply has not fully caught up. Construction slowed after the surge seen earlier in the decade, which has kept availability relatively tight in key areas. That balance is starting to support rents, especially for well-placed properties.

For businesses and investors, this is less about a short-term rebound and more about a reset. Companies want supply chains that can handle disruption without slowing down. Locking in the right space now is part of building that stability.

Devon Coterra Deal Strengthens Permian Footprint

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Devon Energy has agreed to merge with Coterra Energy in an all stock transaction valued at about $58 billion. The combination brings together two large independent oil and gas producers with complementary positions in the Permian Basin, the most active shale region in the United States.

The merged company will control a deeper inventory of drilling locations across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. By combining adjacent acreage and infrastructure, the companies expect to increase production efficiency and lower per barrel costs. Larger scale can also support more consistent capital allocation, with drilling programs concentrated in the highest return zones.

Devon has built its recent strategy around disciplined spending and steady shareholder returns. Coterra has focused on balancing oil output in the Permian with natural gas production in other basins. Together, the companies aim to strengthen their oil weighting while maintaining exposure to gas markets. The broader asset base may provide flexibility to adjust output in response to commodity prices.

For investors, the deal signals continued consolidation in U.S. shale. As drilling inventories mature and capital markets remain selective, scale has become a central factor in sustaining output and managing operating costs. The Permian Basin remains the core growth engine for domestic oil production, and this merger positions the combined company among its largest operators.

If completed, the transaction would reshape the competitive landscape in the basin and reinforce the trend toward fewer, larger producers with the capacity to fund development through cash flow rather than debt.

UPS Refocuses For 2026

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UPS is planning a major shift in 2026, reducing up to 30,000 operational jobs, which translates to about 6% of its global workforce. Most of the change is expected to happen through attrition, along with voluntary separation offers for full-time drivers.

The largest part of this change will come from a reduction in Amazon volume. UPS aims to cut approximately 1 million packages a day in 2026, bringing its daily Amazon shipments down by roughly half. Amazon has expanded its own delivery network, squeezing the economics for outside carriers. UPS is choosing to free up capacity for work that earns more per package.

An increased focus on healthcare logistics sits at the center of the plan. UPS has been building out cold chain and specialty shipping through recent acquisitions, including Andlauer Healthcare Group and Frigo Trans. These acquisitions aim to expand UPS’s ability to handle temperature-sensitive pharmaceuticals and other shipments that require strict controls. That segment of the market is growing quickly, and customers are less willing to compromise on service.

To maximize cost and network efficiency, UPS plans to close 24 facilities, increase automation, and modernize its fleet, including replacing MD-11 aircraft with Boeing 767s. Management expects the full set of changes to generate about $3 billion in annual savings.

The company ended 2025 with a stronger quarter than expected. Fourth-quarter revenue was $24.5 billion, and UPS guided to $89.7 billion in revenue for 2026, up from $88.7 billion last year. The Teamsters union is pushing back on buyout terms, but investors have responded well to the focus on profitability. UPS is trying to build a steadier business by picking better volume, not more volume.

Volkswagen’s U.S. Gamble Faces Policy Headwinds

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Volkswagen is facing one of its toughest periods in the U.S. market, as trade policy and shifting technology trends collide with its long-term strategy. Recent data show its American sales dropping sharply in late 2025, with a decline of about 20% in the fourth quarter alone, underscoring how exposed the company is to new import tariffs and weaker demand for electric vehicles.  While global sales remain strong, Volkswagen’s U.S. performance has become a weak spot that highlights the risks foreign carmakers face when political and market priorities change direction.

A major source of pressure is policy divergence. In Europe and China, electric vehicles are still backed by generous incentives and supportive regulation, but U.S. policy has pivoted toward fossil fuels and away from pure EVs.  That shift has hurt Volkswagen more than some rivals because it invested heavily in EV production and positioned models like the ID.4 as growth drivers in the United States, just as federal tax credits and other benefits were rolled back.  At the same time, American buyers have swung toward hybrids, a segment where Volkswagen has little to offer in this market.

Tariffs compound these challenges. Higher U.S. duties on imported cars and parts raise Volkswagen’s costs, especially for models shipped from Europe or Mexico, forcing the company to decide whether to pass those costs on to consumers or absorb them in lower margins.  Domestic and better-localized competitors, by contrast, are more insulated and in some cases have managed to grow sales despite the same macroeconomic backdrop.  This dynamic leaves Volkswagen squeezed between value brands that can undercut it on price and premium marques that still enjoy robust demand from affluent buyers.

The financial impact is visible in the company’s results. Volkswagen has reported a significant quarterly loss, in part due to the tariff hit and weaker U.S. performance, even as it continues to sell strongly in other regions and expand its electric lineup globally.  Executives insist they remain committed to the United States and are leaning on U.S.-built vehicles that avoid some tariffs, but rebuilding momentum will require adapting product strategy to a “hybrid era” and better aligning with an American market that increasingly diverges from the rest of the world.

The Forces That Defined Markets in 2025

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The U.S. stock market closed out 2025 on a strong note, delivering gains for investors while showcasing the powerful influence of artificial intelligence on the economy. Major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the year with double-digit returns, reflecting renewed confidence in corporate earnings, innovation, and a resilient economic backdrop. Wall Street’s overall performance during the year was marked by steady growth and record levels, even amid periodic volatility and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. 

A major driver of market performance in 2025 was the remarkable interest in AI-related companies and technologies. Companies leading in AI infrastructure, software development, and advanced computing drew investor attention as they reported robust revenue growth and increased capital spending. This enthusiasm helped fuel stock gains and encouraged broader investment in tech-driven sectors.

At the same time, the speed and scale of investor interest prompted debate about whether optimism had outpaced fundamentals. Valuations in certain AI-linked stocks climbed to levels that invited comparison with past technology cycles. Analysts differed on what those signals meant, with some pointing to early signs of excess and others arguing that long-term productivity gains could support elevated prices.

By the end of the year, the conversation had shifted away from labeling the cycle and more toward execution and results. The market’s performance suggested an ongoing recalibration rather than a decisive break. For U.S. companies, the focus now turns to converting technological investment into consistent profit growth. For investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing durable business models from momentum trades as artificial intelligence moves from promise to performance.

S&P Global Expands Private Markets Data

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S&P Global has completed the acquisition of With Intelligence for $1.8 billion, marking another step in its expansion into private markets data and analytics. The deal closed in late November 2025, about a month after it was announced. It reflects S&P Global’s ongoing effort to expand in areas where investor demand for detailed and specialized information is growing.

With Intelligence provides data, analytics, and workflow tools for alternative investment managers and investors. Its offerings cover private equity, hedge funds, private credit, real assets, and related strategies. The company tracks information on funds, investors, capital flows, and performance, which clients use to compare results, support fundraising, and follow portfolio developments. The company is projected to generate around $130 million in revenue in 2025, with management forecasting continued growth.

S&P Global plans to combine this data with its existing indices, ratings, and analytics platforms. The aim is to give clients a more complete picture of private markets over time. This spans everything from capital raising and asset allocation to ongoing performance review and reporting.

The acquisition highlights how important data providers have become within financial markets. Private assets now make up a larger share of global investment, yet information in these markets remains uneven and less transparent than in public markets. That gap has pushed investors to rely on specialised data products for valuation, benchmarking, and assessing risk, typically through subscription services.

The deal also reflects continued consolidation in the financial information sector. Large providers are buying smaller, focused firms to expand their product range and strengthen client relationships. S&P Global expects the transaction to start contributing to earnings in 2027, provided the integration goes smoothly and demand for private markets data continues.