Where is the US economy headed? What impact will the global economic sphere have on this powerhouse region in 2019? In this article we take a look at what some of the experts believe will happen – economically and geographically speaking – this year.
According to Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (a company “dedicated to defining the business of politics”), the greatest geopolitical danger we will face this year will be:
“the crises we ignore… setting ourselves up for trouble down the road. Big trouble. The geopolitical environment is the most dangerous it’s been in decades … and at a moment when the global economy is faring well.”
Together with Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of Eurasia Group, Bremmer believes that the problem is how global decision-makers are ignoring potential future risks with their over-focus on everyday crises that naturally emerge from a leaderless world. This results in “serious consequences for our collective midterm future.” Examples of this include: the state of the EU, NATO, G20, G7, WTO, the Kremlin and Russia; US-China relations and more. Given that all these currents are extremely negative, this is extremely problematic.
But which country is causing the biggest negative impact? According to Matt O’Brien, a Washington Post contributor and business journalist, “China is more of a concern for the global economy than America. It encountered a huge benchmark stock index descent, ranking it the world’s worst in 2018. Some of this can be attributed to Trump’s embryonic trade war could significantly intensify but that’s only somewhat. The real issue was activity in Beijing. According to IMF reports, China’s credit stimulus has resulted in diminishing returns with a lot more new debt being used to pay back old debt or channeled into improbable growth-driven projects.
Still, Schroders Group Chief Economist Keith Wade anticipates a mid-year 3% US interest rate peak while some banks in other countries will continue the monetary policy squeeze. What will likely be beneficial to emerging market assets however, is the likelihood of the slumping US dollar.
It’s also likely that Eurozone growth will become sluggish due to the US-China trade war as well as a drop in GDP growth by .3%. it’s hard to predict the movement of emerging markets due to lower demands from the technology industry toward Asian business although that could be to the benefit of Latin America.