The Future of US – China Relations

According to CNBC, the recent meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping has established a clear boundary in their relationship, offering businesses a sense of certainty. Held in San Francisco during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference, this meeting signifies a commitment to cooperate under the principles of reciprocity and mutual respect, aiming to define areas where the U.S. and China can work together.

Both nations are seeking a new economic normal based on mutual benefit and adherence to established rules. Although Biden maintained export controls due to national security concerns, discussions emphasized the need to address the risks posed by advanced AI systems. Additionally, both sides agreed to revive military talks after a year-long hiatus.

The meeting signals a desire to avoid a downward spiral in their relationship and demonstrates that complete separation between the two economies is unlikely. However, the Biden administration continues its efforts to limit U.S. investment in Chinese companies involved in military-related technologies.

Despite the positive tone, long-standing challenges in U.S. business operations in China persist. While the meeting didn’t result in immediate significant agreements, it did set a cooperative tone, providing stability in the relationship. Nevertheless, companies are likely to remain cautious, focusing on reducing risks and diversifying supply chains based on the actual ground realities in China. The U.S. presidential election in 2024 and Taiwan’s upcoming elections also loom as potential factors influencing the long-term dynamic between the nations.

Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University, said, “I think there’s a lot of consensus coming out of this summit… What you get from this summit is a very clear signal the two countries, they are committed to what we can call recouple, in a way, on the basis of reciprocity and mutual respect… I think this is very important for both countries and indeed for the global economy as well.”