The US has been a huge trade deficit for almost half a century. Last year the figure was $552.3 billion and America’s deficit just with China amounted to $335.7 billion. The question is, what impact does this have for America’s economy? Experts have different ideas as to where this ultimately leads and what it means vis-à-vis its imports and exports.
For the most part, the commonly held view among economists is that such a trade deficit has little or no impact on unemployment figures or makes any dent on the economy in a negative day-to-day way.
Especially when looking at the money made from consumer imports like apparel, mobile technology, appliances etc. Yet the question arises as to how it will impact the economy as travel and media are more utilized given that there was a $255.2billion surplus in that in 2017 as well.
Another argument could be made that America’s increasing trade deficit is actually more due to America fiscal policy and currency swings than trade policy.
According to Oxford Economics economists, there is little expectation that the trend will alter all that much with the recent agreement between Xi Jinping’s recent agreement to increase its US export purchasing. They pointed out:
“Although China has agreed to import more farm, energy and industrial goods, and restart importing soybeans ‘immediately,’ we look for export growth momentum to continue to wane,” they wrote, pointing partly to a slowing global economy.”
Plus the fact that it is getting even more expensive (increase from 64 percent of GDP in 2007 to 105.5 percent in 2018) to rescue America from its deficit.
So there is a long way to go until America is even on the road to recovery. It seems that with its greatest deficit in a decade, the fact that oil exports are on the rise will do little to temper the moods of the country’s economic advisers.